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The Art of Decision-Making

Suppose you had the chance to invest in a venture that succeeds half the time. When you fail you lose your in­ vestment; when you succeed you make a profit of$1.60 for every $1.00 you invest. The odds are 8 to 5 in your favor and you should do well-casinos and insurance companies thrive under less favorable conditions. If you can invest as much as you like, as often as you like, using a betting system that guarantees you can't go broke, common sense suggests you will almost certainly make aprofitafteryou make a large numberofinvestments. In response to yourrequest for a hot stock yourastrologer tells you ABC Inc. will triple in a year (she's really a fraud and picked the stock at random). But since such stocks are rare (one in athousand) you consultan expert and, strangely enough, he confirms the astrologer. From experience you know that the expert diagnoses all stocks, good and bad, correctly, 90% of the time. Common sense suggests you have an excellent chance of tripling your money. You are chairman of acommittee ofthree. Decisions are made by majority rule but if there is no majority your vote as chairman breaks ties. Common sense suggests you will inevitably have more power to determine the outcome than the other members
The Art of Decision-Making
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Suppose you had the chance to invest in a venture that succeeds half the time. When you fail you lose your in- vestment; when you succeed you make a profit of$1.60 for every $1.00 you invest. The odds are 8 to 5 in your favor and you should do well-casinos and insurance companies thrive under less favorable conditions. If you can invest as much as you like, as often as you like, using a betting system that guarantees you can't go broke, common sense suggests you will almost certainly make aprofitafteryou make a large numberofinvestments. In response to yourrequest for a hot stock yourastrologer tells you ABC Inc. will triple in a year (she's really a fraud and picked the stock at random). But since such stocks are rare (one in athousand) you consultan expert and, strangely enough, he confirms the astrologer. From experience you know that the expert diagnoses all stocks, good and bad, correctly, 90% of the time. Common sense suggests you have an excellent chance of tripling your money. You are chairman of acommittee ofthree. Decisions are made by majority rule but if there is no majority your vote as chairman breaks ties.
Common sense suggests you will inevitably have more power to determine the outcome than the other members.
Davis is Professor Emeritus of Mathematics at the City College of NY (CUNY).
The Bottom Line: Decisions in Business and Economics.- Practical Problem-Solving.- Game Theory: The Art of Making Joint Decisions.- Decision-Making in the Boardroom: Problems of Voting.- A Mixture of Wit and Whimsy.
Author
Morton D. Davis
Publisher
Springer
Language
English
ISBN-10
038796228X
ISBN-13
9780387962283
Media
Book
Format
Hardcover
DEWEY
658.403
Year
1985
Publication Date
1985-11-30
Edition
1st
Imprint
Springer-Verlag New York Inc.
Place of Publication
New York, NY
Country of Publication
United States
Residence
US
Birth
1930
Edition Description
1986
Short Title
ART OF DECISION-MAKING 1986/E
Pages
92
Illustrations
biography
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